We discuss why political commentators are already pondering over the steps legislators will likely have to make ahead of elections which are still 18 months distant.
Labor groups and unions gathered a substantial number of signatures to put HB 267, which bans collective bargaining for public sector workers, up for potential repeal through a ballot measure. According to a recent poll conducted by the Deseret News and Hinckley Institute of Politics, 36% of registered voters support overturning this law, 32% oppose it, and 31% remain uncertain. What insights do these figures provide?
COWLEY: As voters are split nearly evenly into three groups, both supporters and critics of the referendum haven’t managed to sway enough opinions just yet. The unions collected an undoubtedly substantial number of signatures—320,000 in total—but having many signees doesn’t necessarily reflect high levels of backing. A significant portion may be convinced merely by the idea that adding names would place the decision before every voter in Utah—a strong point irrespective of whether this particular measure is contentious.
Should this make it onto the ballot—and I remain quite skeptical about that—it would likely become the costliest ballot initiative in Utah’s history. Labor unions will face the challenge of justifying their backing for union executives who receive public sector perks and pensions funded by taxpayers. Advocates for the legislation must differentiate between the educators in their children’s classes whom they admire and respect, as opposed to the leaders of the UEA and their endorsement of what some view as an extreme left-wing platform.
PIGNANELLI: He shall be victorious who understands the times for combat and those for restraint. — Sun Tzu Elections and public affairs campaigns adopt tactics akin to those used in military operations. (Needless to say, soldiers face extreme difficulties.) Skillful commanders select where and when to engage. Savvy political strategists strive for comparable tactical advantages.
The competition spurred by the collective bargaining referendum has turned into a stand-in conflict between major nationwide special interest groups. The findings from the surveys will force these heavily financed bodies to allocate significant assets. Additionally, firefighters, police officers, and teachers plan to contact their local communities and acquaintances to back the referendum. This sets the stage for an intense confrontation.
The survey indicates that if the Legislature steers clear of this controversial matter (through repeal of the legislation), not many people would raise objections.
The political activity goes further than just negotiating labor agreements. Key topics encompass: The potential revocation of the Utah Fits All scholarship due to an ongoing appeal; discussions about overhauling the judiciary system, significant legal debates regarding electoral district boundaries, and legislators aiming for another attempt at passing Amendment D. What effects might these various concerns have on each other?
COWLEY: Should these problems turn into long-lasting disputes, we might witness an overcrowded ballot in 2026. In my view, many of them will likely be settled prior to printing the ballots.
If the Utah Fits All Scholarship decision is maintained, it could jeopardize other initiatives such as dual-immersion programs and the Carson Smith Scholarship. This might lead the Legislature to address a constitutional issue regarding education funding clarification.
Controversy surrounds several judges. Representative Angela Romero teamed up with Speaker Schultz In urging for the resignation of 7th District Judge Don Torgerson due to remarks he made following a sentencing hearing in a felony child sexual exploitation case in Grand County, any ensuing reforms within the judicial system are not expected to necessitate a ballot question. Instead, these changes will likely draw considerable focus during the 2026 General Session.
Amendment D has the highest likelihood of being featured on the 2026 ballot. Legislators remain resolute in their intent to either clarify or overturn the Supreme Court’s decision, which prevents them from modifying citizen initiatives or referendums indefinitely. Unless this matter is put before the electorate, the current ruling could lead to initiatives turning into permanent statutes, necessitating an additional expensive and challenging referendum for any alterations.
Should all or most of these items end up on the ballot, they could potentially compete against each other. It would be wise to prioritize and proceed with caution for any of them to have success.
PIGNANELLI: Documents detailing military history indicate that engaging in warfare across multiple fronts can be costly and necessitates careful prioritization for any meaningful achievement. For Republican Party officials, the primary focus should be on a ballot measure scheduled for 2026 aimed at amending the Constitution so as to permit alterations to previously approved initiatives. In order to secure voter support, legislators must avoid getting entangled with the public sector union negotiations issue and instead take a targeted stance towards addressing various contentious matters.
These issues will all impact one another, yet the degree of this effect will depend on legislators' areas of emphasis. This is how political battles unfold.
November 2026 seems far away. Will anything transpire regarding these issues before that time?
COWLEY: The legislature and labor unions will engage in negotiations aiming for a middle ground on the repeal and replacement issue. Cox plans to put the referendum on the 2026 ballot However, numerous lawmakers would prefer not to have their reelection campaigns associated with this issue. It stands to reason that the Legislature might opt for repealing the law to prevent additional negative consequences, similar to what was done with tax reform. If talks break down, amending the legislation could prove challenging without clear guidance from Amendment D.
I'm hopeful that Attorney General Derek Brown will succeed with the Utah Fits All Scholarship appeal, thus bypassing an electoral dispute.
PIGNANELLI: Early next year, lawmakers will begin garnering support for the constitutional amendment that allows them to amend initiatives. Their success will require an intensive, comprehensive strategy. Other issues will likely be solved or held until 2027.
The uncertainty lies in when and how the Planned Parenthood case will be decided, potentially affecting campaign-related actions.
Republican Renae Cowley serves as a political consultant, works as a lobbyist, and is also a prominent social media influencer. , and professional rodeo athlete. Email: [email protected]. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake lawyer, lobbyist, and political consultant who was part of the Democratic Party in the Utah State Legislature. His email address is [email protected].