Jair Bolsonaro currently faces trial for allegedly planning a coup, which removes the leader from Brazil’s right-wing faction. However, as next year's presidential elections approach, the Brazilian left has yet to find a contender capable of rivaling Lula's widespread popularity.
As Brazil approaches the midpoint of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term, the country finds itself grappling with another leadership crisis. The former frontrunner’s popularity has plummeted to an all-time low throughout his extensive time in office.
Based on a February poll conducted by Datafolia, one of Brazil’s leading polling organizations, 24% expressed approval for the administration, 41% showed disapproval, and 32% rated it as "average." Given consistent outcomes across various surveys, the emerging scenario indicates a continuous yet steep downturn for this once-dominant force in South America’s leftist politics.
After exhausting his initial popularity due to a lack of significant policy achievements, Lula now confronts the increasing discontent that has troubled every Brazilian president since he last left office in 2010.
Heightened political division between the left-wing and extreme right, coupled with a traditionally influential and conservative legislature, along with their failure to connect with younger generations of workers, are among the key factors contributing to widespread perception in Brazil that Lula and his Worker’s Party (PT) administration is struggling.
Moreover, both Lula and particularly the PT have to confront their inability so far to cultivate a successor for the Brazilian left. As the 2026 elections approach and public demand for transformation increases, the chances of another left-leaning president serving a new term appear increasingly unlikely.
From Consensus to Crisis
All three of Brazil’s most recent presidents concluded their tenures with notably low approval ratings. These include the center-left leader Dilma Rousseff, the pro-market Michel Temer, and the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, who shared few other similarities apart from this fact. Various particular circumstances contributed to the downfall of each administration. Collectively though, these leadership transitions reflect the turbulent nature of politics throughout the 2010s, contrasting sharply with the more stable environment witnessed under President Lula during his initial two terms.
In 2010, when Lula stepped down from office after serving for eight years, he left with remarkably high public support. A survey showed that his administration had an impressive 87 percent approval rating. In every aspect measured, Lula stood out as one of the world’s most beloved political figures (a distinction President Barack Obama made about him during a G20 conference).
It should be noted that Lula did not govern without encountering opposition or criticism. His party, the PT, adopted a left-leaning strategy centered mainly on fighting poverty and establishing social programs, which provoked anger among the established elites as well as segments of the middle class.
These components didn’t see themselves reflected in Lula, a former factory laborer from an impoverished area of Brazil without a college education, who communicated using straightforward, everyday language. Traditionally, individuals like him were far removed from what people expected in the role of president of Brazil, which had historically been held either by members of prominent political families, longtime political fixtures, or at times, ambitious military leaders.
In 2005, the "Mensalão" scandal sent shockwaves through President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration and his Workers' Party (PT), thrusting issues of corruption into the limelight of public debate. A significant portion of this media attention can be attributed to the influential Globo media conglomerate, which had long held a neoliberal stance and been critical of Lula. These factors fueled their unfavorable reporting during his tenure in office.
Despite facing significant resistance, Lula’s exceptional ability to form coalitions and negotiate helped him build extensive backing within Congress. As a result, he was able to enact transformative policies like Bolsa FamÃlia and Fome Zero, which lifted countless people out of poverty and significantly expanded education and healthcare services. Throughout his tenure, Lula oversaw an unprecedented economic upturn and enhanced Brazil’s global reputation via strategic diplomatic and economic agreements.
During Lula's tenure, Brazil experienced a relatively civil and stable political environment, particularly when contrasted with the current climate. The presidential race primarily involved the center-left Workers' Party (PT) and the center-right liberal-socialist Brazilian Social Democracy Party. Although these factions had differing views on policy matters, they shared a common vision of steering Brazil towards greater equality and economic strength through solid democratic frameworks.
Bolsonaro’s Rise
This agreement fell apart following Lula’s exit. Dilma Rousseff, who had been a loyal supporter of Lula and whom he selected as his successor, presided over the country amid escalating corruption investigations and economic downturns. This period also saw social media emerge as a powerful instrument for galvanizing political activism.
These events aligned with the Jornadas de Junho, a remarkable surge of massive demonstrations calling for political and tax reforms, yet primarily reflecting a yearning for quicker transformation across Brazilian society. Despite Dilma’s efforts to address these protests by pledging a fresh approach to governance, her strained relations with Congress hindered significant alterations to Brazil’s deeply rooted political framework.
Without Lula's knack for forming alliances and facing increasing calls for reforms along with stringent measures against corruption, Dilma often found herself at odds with Congress. Following her slim re-election in 2014, legislative heads initiated proceedings to impeach her in 2016. This move was celebrated by the political right as a significant triumph, whereas the left viewed it as a veiled coup.
Dilma’s replacement, Vice President Michel Temer, leaned towards conservatism and promptly initiated fiscal restraint policies. He faced intense disdain from the Left, who viewed him as an illegitimate ruler, whereas the Right saw him merely as part of the political elite. In certain surveys, his popularity plummeted to just 7 percent. Despite frequent demands for his stepping down, Temer managed to stay in power through his strong connections within Congress up until the following electoral period.
In 2018, the political scene starkly contrasted with the prosperous and steady environment of the 2000s. For many years, the Brazilian right wing steadily eroded support for the Worker's Party (PT), all while their ranks grew more extreme. weaponization in the battle against corruption aimed at discrediting the Left, as seen in the now notorious Operation Car Wash , played a role in getting Lula imprisoned based on charges that were subsequently annulled by Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court.
Despite this, the harm was irreversible. The PT’s support had plummeted, and Lula was barred from contesting the 2018 elections. Consequently, the presidency that year went decisively to the formerly fringe far-right contender Jair Bolsonaro.
When Bolsonaro started his presidency, he was already unpopular, a situation worsened by his attempts to dismantle governmental bodies and his inadequate handling of the COVID-19 crisis along with overall disarray in governance. Previously infrequent public demonstrations had become an everyday event in major urban centers during those times.
Lula re-entered the political arena and barely won against Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. Ironically, even though he stayed as the most favored politician in Brazil, his party had become largely disfavored. However, his comeback to power didn’t restore the agreement that characterized the decade from the early 2000s.
Although Lula experienced a lengthy honeymoon phase where his pledges to restore the stability seen in the 2000s and safeguard democratic values garnered significant trust, his failure to alleviate the widespread discontent from the previous ten years has significantly eroded his public support. He hasn’t introduced anything comparable to the transformative programs like Bolsa FamÃlia or Fome Zero. Given our current climate filled with incessant information updates and diversions, only policies equally groundbreaking could sway voters’ opinions today.
A Changed Society
A significant challenge Lula faces is connecting with Brazil’s newer generation of working-class individuals, distinct from those he rallied as a prominent labor union leader in the '70s and '80s. Over time, Lula and his party, the PT, have wooed these workers with pledges of reforms such as social initiatives and enhanced worker rights. These appeals resonated particularly among industrial employees and household staff who had a strong awareness of their shared economic struggles.
Nevertheless, they must now navigate a transformed social environment brimming with self-proclaimed gig economy "businesspeople" who view the phrase "working class" as derogatory. These individuals are drawn to concepts championed by Brazil’s conservative movement regarding self-reliant individuals and a diminishing government role, emphasizing "greater freedom and reduced taxation," rather than adhering to the conventional rhetoric of the Workers' Party (PT).
The allure of improved work conditions holds little charm for those who see themselves as their own bosses, effortlessly switching between delivery gigs and ride-sharing services. A strong independent "self-help" ethos has rapidly permeated Brazilian culture, largely due to an extensive web of right-wing social media personalities, conservative news outlets, and far-right political figures. These entities portray Brazil’s circumstances through a skewed lens, distorting the reality faced by many individuals within the nation.
As links circulated on social media have become the primary news source for large segments of the population, a pervasive issue known as tunnel vision has emerged. To illustrate using the economy as an example, Brazil saw a growth rate surpassing expectations during Lula’s presidency. Nevertheless, most Brazilians remain unaware of this progress. There is a prevalent belief that the economy fared poorly under Lula, suffering from severe corruption—something often linked to him, his party (the PT), and leftist politics in general—which dominates public perception.
Recently, the impact of this narrow focus became apparent when the government tried to establish uniform regulations for Brazil’s widely-used instant payment system known as Pix. This digital transaction tool, which has become integral to daily life in Brazil since debuting in 2020, faced significant controversy due to social media rumors suggesting that the Lula administration might introduce heavy taxation on Pix transactions or potentially abolish the system entirely. Consequently, there was substantial public opposition.
Actually, no such plans existed because the government merely aimed to highlight significant financial transactions to curb criminal misuse within the system. However, this situation was exacerbated by an onslaught of false information, which significantly tarnished the government’s reputation since they couldn’t promptly debunk these rumors. Ultimately, the treasury withdrew the proposed regulation, leading people to believe that baseless public outcry had protected Pix, thus further feeding the misinformation campaign.
To put it briefly, it’s not just the absence of significant laws or reforms hurting Lula and the PT; it’s equally their inability to convey their achievements to the public and shield themselves against an unyielding opposition with no regard for honesty. This opposition has taken control of the interests of numerous gig economy workers.
Search for a Successor
The PT initially emerged as a wide-ranging alliance of leftist factions, encompassing everyone from radical Marxists to progressive Christians and social democrats, all united under the common objective of solidifying the Left’s position as a significant catalyst for systemic transformation. Over time, however, the party grew more homogeneous, with Lula's influence expanding significantly at the cost of diminishing prominence among other potential leaders.
Upon leaving office in 2010, Lula passed the torch to his successor, Dilma Rousseff, who benefited from both his widespread appeal and the accomplishments of his administration. However, her bid for reelection in 2014 proved far more challenging. By 2018, many believed that Lula's comeback would be essential for securing another leftist win. But when he was detained and unable to run, an old associate of Lula’s, Fernando Haddad, ran instead but ultimately lost to Bolsonaro.
In 2022, Lula emerged yet again as the sole figure capable of defeating Bolsonaro. His slim margin of victory led to another four-year tenure under a center-left administration. However, with the 2026 elections drawing near, not one of the current PT politicians has been able to step out from under Lula’s influence and build their own substantial following.
Various leftist parties have been active in the country’s political landscape. Over the past ten years, the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) has expanded significantly, providing a more extreme option compared to the PT and consistently vying for positions like governors and senators. In each of the previous four presidential races prior to the most recent election—when they supported Lula—the PSOL fielded their own nominees. They have accused the PT of being unwilling to support any contender who isn’t affiliated with them, even if an alternate left-leaning nominee could potentially secure victory.
During the 2022 election, it was proposed that Lula might select Ciro Gomes—a former cabinet member from one of Lula’s administrations who later turned into a vocal opponent of the PT and even contested the presidency against Lula with a centrist agenda—as his deputy. An alternative option may have been Guilherme Boulos from the PSOL, known for being their nominee in the 2018 presidential race and subsequently winning a congressional seat representing São Paulo in 2022. Both candidates could help portray the electoral slate as more cohesive within leftist or at minimum center-left politics.
Rather than opting for another candidate, Lula selected Geraldo Alckmin, his previous adversary in the 2006 presidential race, representing the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party. This decision sent a strong signal that remnants of traditional politics were rallying against Bolsonaro’s influence. However, no one seriously viewed Alckmin as being aligned with the leftist ideology or believed he would attract support from progressive voters should he pursue the presidency again in the future. By choosing Alckmin as his vice-presidential nominee, Lula effectively preempted potential competition within the leftist sphere, preventing an alternate contender from capturing significant national focus and possibly emerging as a future heir to the Workers' Party leadership.
Flávio Dino could have served as a strong substitute for Lula as the face of the Left, known for his exceptional communication skills and extensive history of electoral successes. Initially elected to Congress under the Communist Party banner in 2006, he went on to win the gubernatorial race in Maranhão, a state in Brazil’s northeast region, in 2014. He secured another term in office four years after that before transitioning into the role of Senator in 2022.
Subsequently, Dino assumed the role of Lula’s justice minister, gaining widespread attention after he responded promptly to the assault on the capital by Bolsonaro’s followers on January 8. However, when an opportunity arose for a position on the Supreme Court in early 2024, Lula opted to nominate Dino instead. While this appointment was a significant accolade and a triumph for the Left, it effectively disqualified him from being considered as a potential political contender.
2026
The absence of viable substitutes for Lula is partly intentional. By 2026, Lula will turn eighty and has stated he won’t seek the presidency once more. The Workers' Party ought to have ample opportunity by this point to groom a replacement, but this hasn't occurred thus far. Fernando Haddad, currently acting as Lula’s finance minister, lacks sufficient public charm despite achieving some success economically, which has remained largely unnoticed.
Gleisi Hoffmann, the president of the PT and a more leftist figure, holds similar levels of popularity as Haddan and isn’t keen on taking up the role. On the other hand, Rui Costa—the former governor of Bahia known for occupying a more center-leaning stance within the party—has a stronger presence yet remains far less popular compared to Lula. Outside the confines of the PT, potential candidates become fewer and their profiles blurrier. It seems highly probable that significant efforts will push for Lula to seek office once more, thereby reinforcing his predominant standing among Brazil’s leftists.
Conversely, the right-wing opposition to Lula and the PT also faces significant issues. On March 26, the Supreme Court collectively approved charges against Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup aimed at overturning the outcomes of the 2022 election. As such, the ex-president is currently among eight individuals labeled as defendants facing an impending trial.
Given that Bolsonaro is already disqualified from holding public office due to previous violations and could now face years behind bars, the political right doesn’t have a clear leader. Potential contenders like TarcÃsio de Freitas—a shrewd politician who serves as the governor of São Paulo and has been likened to Brazil’s Ron DeSantis—or even Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, would essentially serve as stand-ins for the ex-president. This scenario mirrors the dynamics seen with Lula and the left side in 2018 but appears more like an inverted reflection.
Polling indicates that Lula must reclaim dominance over the political discourse. Should the vote occur now, his chances of winning another term appear thin but remain superior compared to any potential leftist contender. He has until October 2026 to recover lost territory by aligning policies with public perception and fostering an environment of progress—a task far more challenging than instilling sentiments of disorder and pessimism.
Should Lula decide to run once more, he must offer a compelling rationale for his candidacy that transcends merely being an alternative to the far-right. Alternatively, if he chooses to support another contender—likely someone within his party—he would require this chosen successor to cultivate a distinct public image independent of Lula’s legacy; otherwise, they risk inevitable failure.