During its coalition talks, the CDU/CSU has dropped six percentage points.
Hermann Binkert, who leads the Institute for New Social Answers (INSA), refers to this as a "lack of backing unprecedented during the timeframe from federal election day until the establishment of a new government."
Based on the Sunday survey carried out by the Insa polling organization for the Bild newspaper, 24 percent of respondents indicated they would support both the CDU/CSU and the AfD.
For the AfD, this shows a rise of one percentage point from the previous survey, which is their highest score yet. Conversely, the CDU/CSU, under the leadership of probable upcoming Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, dropped two percentage points.
The CDU and CSU emerged victorious in the Bundestag election held on February 23rd, garnering 28.5 percent of the second votes. The AfD followed closely behind with 20.8 percent.
In comparison to the previous election, the CDU/CSU has dropped by 4.5 percentage points.
The SPD, anticipated to join as a coalition partner soon, has stayed steady at 16% according to the latest Insa survey. Consequently, this means the SPD wouldn’t hold an outright majority in parliament alone.
The Greens remain at 11 percent (-1), the same percentage as the Left Party (+1). All other political groups still fail to surpass the five percent hurdle.
Between March 31 and April 4, a total of 1,206 individuals took part in the survey. The maximum possible sampling error, as stated by Insa, is approximately ±2.9%.
In the meantime, as reported by a German news site t-online The Bundestag session planned for next week has been canceled upon the request of the CDU/CSU and SPD. The anticipated opposition parties—Left, Greens, and AfD—are objecting to this decision.
The Bundestag will not meet next week as scheduled.
The AfD sees this action as a sign of apprehension, implying that the Union is concerned about potentially being eclipsed by the right-wing party. As stated by Bernd Baumann, the Parliamentary Secretary for the AfD parliamentary group, they intend to promptly introduce “every demand that the CDU/CSU pledged during their electoral campaign” before the Bundestag, as he detailed in a video posted on the news site X.
The Greens denounce this as "essentially a witch hunt, particularly given the current circumstances," whereas the Left Party deems it an insult. They contend that numerous crucial issues—including Trump’s tariff policies—demand discussion: "There ought to be political quiet during coalition talks, with the opposition refraining from disruption—which is preposterous."
The newly assembled Bundestag held its inaugural meeting on March 25th. Before this gathering, the previous iteration of the parliament had passed significant debt provisions aimed at infrastructure and defense projects using the necessary two-thirds majority vote. Alongside the CDU/CSU and SPD parties, members from the Green party also supported the creation of the special fund.
In the newly constituted Bundestag, these parties would not have possessed enough votes to approve such a resolution.