1551 ET - The US dollar shows signs of recovery amid Wall Street grappling with concerns over an impending recession due to President Trump's tariff policies. Meanwhile, economic indicators suggest robust health within the American job market; March saw employment surpass expectations, though the unemployment rate ticked upward slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledges potential impacts of these tariffs—potentially leading to increased inflation and slowed growth—but underscores the central bank’s intention to gather further information prior to adjusting interest rates. In response to Chinese counter-tariffs, stock prices decline along with Treasury bond yields. Consequently, the WSJ Dollar Index climbs by 1.3%, showing notable gains such as a 1% appreciation against the euro, 0.7% increase relative to the Japanese yen, and a 1.7% rise compared to the British pound. Additionally, the dollar has strengthened almost 5% vis-Ã -vis Australia’s currency. [email protected] ; @ptrevisani)
The Euro Dipped Against the Dollar Following U.S. Employment Figures; Concerns Over Tariffs Hinder Further Decline
1303 GMT - The euro declines relative to the dollar following the release of U.S. data which indicated that non-farm payroll figures for March saw a significantly higher increase than anticipated. This information offers some—but not extensive—comfort regarding the resilience of the U.S. job market prior to what is projected as considerable economic disruption due to President Trump's wide-ranging trade tariffs. "While economic challenges lie ahead, we can take solace knowing the labor sector remained strong heading into this politically driven upheaval," notes Seema Shah from Principal Global Investors in her report. In March, the U.S. gained 228,000 jobs compared with forecasts predicting around 140,000 additional positions based on a Wall Street Journal survey. As reported by FactSet, the euro drops 0.3%, trading down to $1.1016 from $1.1088 previously. Notably, earlier in the week, it reached a half-year peak at $1.1148. [email protected] )
MFS Prefers Euros Over Dollars Following Tariffs' Impact on US Economy — Market Talk
1307 GMT — Following U.S. President Trump’s recent announcement of extensive tariffs, MFS Investment Management now leans towards favoring the euro. They believe the U.S. dollar may lose its appeal as a safe haven due to potential significant economic disruption. "Higher tariffs function like an additional tax on spending; hence, American consumers could face substantial negative impacts," notes the MFS Market Insights Team in their report analyzing tariff effects. This leads them to remain optimistic about investments in the euro area. The current value of the euro stands at $1.1041 against the dollar, marking only a slight decline of 0.1%. Earlier this week, however, it reached a peak of $1.1148—a figure not seen since half a year ago—according to data provided by FactSet. ([email protected])
The Dollar Dips to Six-Month Low Against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Following China’s Announcement of New Tariffs
11:16 AM GMT – The US dollar continues to decline, hitting a six-month low against the safe-haven currencies—the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc—following China's retaliation measures in response to President Donald Trump's extensive tariff declarations made late Thursday. Beijing declared that starting April 10th, they will levy a 34% import duty on all American products entering their market. This development intensifies worries over an impending trade conflict as well as potential severe economic repercussions for both the USA and worldwide markets. As a result, the value of the USD decreases by 0.7%, reaching 145.044 yen, according to FactSet records. It also slides further by over 1%, trading down to 0.8504 Swiss francs. Meanwhile, the euro strengthens slightly, moving upwards to exchange at 1.1036 compared to approximately 1.0989 shortly prior to these statements being released. [email protected] )
The Dollar May End the Week Down as Treasury Yields Decrease Due to Tariffs Effect
0826 GMT - The US dollar may stay under pressure and is likely to finish the week lower following President Trump's declaration of extensive tariff measures, notes Konstantinos Chrysikos from Kudotrade in his report. As the value of the dollar declines, US Treasuries keep rallying, causing the 10-year yield to drop beneath 4% for the first time in half a year during early trading. "The anticipation of a more lenient monetary approach has also put downward pressure on US bond yields," states Chrysikos. Currently, the DXY dollar index climbs by 0.3% reaching up to 102.396; however, this figure still stands 1.6% less than where it began the week based on FactSet figures. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield drops seven basis points to trade around 3.985%, per information provided by Tradeweb. [email protected] )
The Euro Unexpectedly Emerge as the Victor Following the Tariff Consequences
0755 GMT - In the wake of US President Trump announcing extensive trade tariffs on Wednesday evening, the euro unexpectedly emerges as the primary gainer. According to an analysis by ING economist Chris Turner, this shift occurs because investors are shifting away from riskier investments and divesting themselves of dollars. Despite potential significant damage to the Eurozone economy due to these new tariffs, the "alternate liquidity provided by the euro" appears to be driving its appreciation. Additionally, the currency remains robust compared to the safe-haven Japanese yen. As reported by FactSet, the euro has dipped 0.4%, trading at $1.1013 after reaching a half-year peak of $1.1148 earlier in the week. [email protected] )
The Week's Closing of EUR/USD Above Ichimoku Cloud Indicates Potential for Additional Gains, Charts Indicate
At 0741 GMT, according to Quek Ser Leang from UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research in his analysis, if EUR/USD closes above the Ichimoku cloud for this week, it could indicate increased strength over the next few months as seen on the weekly chart. This week, the currency pair has decisively surpassed the upper boundary of the weekly cloud, and maintaining a closing position above the cloud will validate this upward break, he explains. To keep up the positive trend, EUR/USD needs to remain within the boundaries of the cloud. Additionally, the analyst points out that the resistance level stands between 1.1215 and 1.1230. Currently, EUR/USD shows a slight dip of 0.2%, trading at 1.1034. [email protected] )
Sterling Drops Against Euro Following Tariff Announcement
07:38 GMT - The pound continues its decline from Thursday against the euro, reaching a 10-week low following U.S. President Trump’s declaration of extensive trade tariffs on Wednesday evening. These announcements led to significant shifts across global finance markets amid concerns over potential economic effects. According to ING’s Chris Turner, one reason for the pound's depreciation is greater trading liquidity within the eurozone when market volatility is high. Additionally, this indicates a shift where traders now believe UK interest rates might not remain relatively elevated compared to those in other key countries. "This could likely dominate currency trends shortly," notes Turner in his report. The euro strengthens by approximately 0.4%, peaking at €0.8474 per British Pound as reported by FactSet. Meanwhile, the pound reverses course downward versus the US Dollar too, receding by around 0.4% to stand at $1.3049. [email protected] )
The Dollar Remains Soft Post Decline Following the Tariff Statement
06:58 GMT - The US dollar continues to weaken as the DXY index dropped to a six-month low on Thursday post-President Trump's declaration of extensive tariff measures. This development raised significant worries regarding their effect on the American economy. Market participants are currently looking towards the upcoming US employment report due out at 12:30 GMT, hoping for insights into how the job sector performed prior to these new tariffs being implemented. "Trade policies coming from the USA have become unpredictable," according to an analyst note issued by IG Group, which could lead to substantial shifts in investment flows away from US financial markets." At this time, the DXY dollar index is down 0.2%, trading around 101.915 points after hitting a trough of 101.267 earlier yesterday. [email protected] )
The Dollar Might Show a Slight Upswing Against Asian Currencies Due to U.S. Tariffs
0151 GMT – Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that the US dollar could see modest gains against several Asian currencies due to recent tariff developments, although this growth might be tempered by stability within the USD/CNY exchange rate. They highlight that the extent of new US tariffs exceeded initial forecasts. According to their analysis, "Considering the scale of these tariffs along with prevailing conditions and current levels, we anticipate that the Thai Baht (THB) will likely face significant vulnerability among Asian currencies," they state. Additionally, they mention that "Recent policy moves in Indonesia have sparked concern amongst investors; thus, we foresee ongoing downward pressure on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)." Furthermore, they suggest increases for various currency pairings including: USD/Korean Won (KRW), USD/New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), USD/Singapore Dollar (SGD), and USD/Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). [email protected] )